Home Business News Rishi Sunak is the clear favourite to replace Johnson, with his prospect of becoming the next Tory leader

Rishi Sunak is the clear favourite to replace Johnson, with his prospect of becoming the next Tory leader

by Mark Fitt Political Journalist
18th Jan 22 1:26 pm

The chance of Boris Johnson being replaced as Prime Minister this year is up to 64%, according to the latest prices at the Smarkets exchange.

The Chancellor Rishi Sunak is the clear favourite to replace Johnson, with his prospect of becoming the next Tory leader rising from 27% to 36% since the turn of the year, this is the highest it’s ever been.

The Foreign Secretary Liz Truss remains second favourite, but has seen a downgrade of her chance in recent days, falling from 25% to 15%.

Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee Jeremy Hunt is the only other contender in double figures (10%).

Dark horses who have attracted recent betting support include Penny Mordaunt (4%), Nadhim Zahawi (3%) and Tobias Ellwood (2%).

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets told LondonLovesBusiness, “Boris Johnson’s position seems dire, but the betting markets aren’t expecting an imminent eviction from No.10. The chance of him resigning this month has actually fallen in the last week, from 24% to just 11%.

“It is still 64% likely that he will be replaced as PM at some point this year, with the implied probability at Smarkets having ticked up slightly since Dominic Cummings’ latest intervention. Speculation around his successor is ramping up and Rishi Sunak’s price has now hit an all-time high of 36%. Recent polling of Tory members indicated that he was well ahead of his rivals and the betting markets have responded.

“A couple of weeks ago, Liz Truss appeared to be on the verge of becoming favourite but her odds have been on the slide recently, although the Foreign Secretary remains second favourite with a 15% chance. Meanwhile, a few dark horses are emerging from the pack, notably Penny Mordaunt whose prospects have risen to 4% amidst talk of a possible leadership bid from the former Defence Secretary.”

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