Poland is poised to become a regional defence leader  

Poland is ideally positioned to assume a more active leadership role in Europe’s evolving security architecture.

But the country’s potential risks being undercut by populist sentiments, according to a strategic update from LSE IDEAS, London School of Economics.

The whitepaper, written by researchers at Jagiellonian University, Marcin Fatalski and Wojciech Michnik, highlights the geographical and industrial strengths that could make Poland invaluable to securing NATO and the EU’s eastern front.

Reinforcing the frontline with Russia is critical for Europe’s security, and Poland’s central position between Finland in the north and Bulgaria in the south could enable it to act as a regional leader and connective node linking Allied defence efforts. This was visibly demonstrated during Russia’s drone incursion in September 2025.

Furthermore, the researchers highlight Poland’s large industrial base, which is already home to numerous European and American defence firms. Extensive transport infrastructure, coupled with logistical experience from providing operational support to Ukraine for three years, could make Poland central to the Alliance’s ability to project force in Eastern Europe.

“These factors make Warsaw a natural candidate to become a regional hub for military production and a critical bulwark on NATO’s eastern flank and the EU’s external border,” says Michnik, who is also Transatlantic Project Coordinator of the Central and South-East Europe Programme at LSE IDEAS.

However, Fatalski and Michnik warn domestic political instability poses a serious risk to this trajectory by undermining policy consistency. A political shift back toward illiberal practices may improve bilateral relations with a similarly-minded US administration at the cost of undermining Poland’s standing within the EU and NATO.

“Given the radicalisation of political discourse, the increasingly polarised public sphere, and concerning long-term societal trends, the probability of such a reversal cannot be dismissed,” says Fatalski.

In the current geopolitical climate, Poland is at a crossroads. It has the potential to become a defence leader or an influential voice of Euroscepticism. Michnik and Fatalski believe the 2027 parliamentary elections will provide a strong indication of which path the country will choose.