The so-called “Burnham bounce” has stalled just two weeks after Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, with Reform UK surging back into first place in the latest opinion poll.
A new YouGov survey found Nigel Farage’s party had edged ahead of Labour once again, suggesting the change in leadership has delivered only a limited boost for the governing party.
Reform UK was projected to win 23 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of Labour on 22 per cent, as voters appeared reluctant to fully embrace the new Prime Minister despite the early optimism surrounding his arrival.
The figures follow a brief improvement in Labour’s polling position after Mr Burnham replaced Keir Starmer, with the former Greater Manchester mayor receiving a warmer public response than his predecessor.
Dr Patrick English, YouGov’s head of elections and political data, said there had been a “positive response” to the leadership change, with Mr Burnham currently the highest-rated party leader measured by the pollster.
But he warned against expectations of a dramatic turnaround for Labour.
“People still don’t think that the government is doing a brilliant job,” he said, cautioning that the party should not expect a “massive surge” simply because of a change at the top.
The latest figures will raise fresh questions about Labour’s ability to rebuild support after months of political turmoil.
Despite spending only two weeks in office, Mr Burnham has already faced criticism over a series of difficult issues, including the early release of prisoners, the ongoing small boats crisis and fears of future tax increases.
The Prime Minister is currently facing pressure to convince voters that his leadership represents a genuine break from the previous government while tackling some of the most politically damaging issues facing Westminster.
For Nigel Farage, the poll provides a fresh boost after Reform UK slipped behind Labour following Mr Burnham’s arrival. The party has continued to capitalise on public frustration over immigration, the economy and trust in traditional politics.
The figures suggest that while Labour may have enjoyed a brief lift from a change of leader, winning back voters will require more than a new face in No10.
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