Ethereum is trading around $2,680–$2,690, up approximately 11% in September and nearly 67% in the third quarter.
This marks a significant recovery from the $1,600 area in late June, although ETH remains roughly 46% below its all-time high near $4,955.
The move suggests that Ethereum has emerged from the weakness seen earlier this year, but there is still insufficient evidence to confirm the beginning of an entirely new bull cycle.
U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $831 million in net inflows in September, lifting cumulative inflows to nearly $13.9 billion, according to Farside data updated on the morning of October 1.
However, monthly inflows fell by more than 55% from the $1.85 billion recorded in August. The final two sessions of the month also provisionally registered combined net outflows of around $62 million, suggesting that investors are becoming more cautious after ETH’s strong quarterly advance.
Nevertheless, positive flows for the month as a whole indicate that institutional demand has merely cooled rather than fully reversed.
On the positive side, staking continues to absorb a substantial amount of ETH. Approximately 43.7 million ETH, equivalent to nearly 35.8% of the total supply, is currently staked. The staking entry queue stands at almost 1.58 million ETH, roughly twice the 788,000 ETH waiting to exit. This indicates that demand to stake ETH remains stronger than demand to leave the network, thereby limiting to some extent the amount of supply that could return to the market in the short term.
Meanwhile, BitMine currently holds more than 6 million ETH, equivalent to approximately 4.9% of the total supply. This highlights the growing scale of institutional accumulation, although such concentration also creates a risk that warrants monitoring.
However, the picture is not entirely favourable. The sharp decline in transaction fees has supported the scalability of Ethereum and its Layer 2 networks, but it has also caused the amount of ETH burned to fall significantly below the amount issued to validators. As a result, the ETH supply has increased slightly over the past three months, weakening the deflationary narrative that was once one of the market’s key investment arguments.
Meanwhile, lower-than-expected U.S. inflation has reduced the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October, but the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%. With safer assets offering yields significantly higher than Ethereum’s staking yield of approximately 2.6%, speculative capital is unlikely to return to the cryptocurrency market too aggressively.
In my view, Ethereum’s medium-term outlook remains tilted to the upside, supported by ETF inflows, staking demand and the network’s increasingly important role in stablecoins, DeFi and tokenized assets.
However, following a gain of nearly 67% in the third quarter, ETH may need more time to consolidate before establishing another sustainable advance. The bullish scenario would strengthen if ETFs return to attracting consistent inflows and U.S. Treasury yields ease. Conversely, if institutional flows continue to weaken while the amount of ETH waiting to exit staking increases, short-term corrective pressure could quickly return.
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