US President Donald Trump has blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries for a surge in American diesel prices, arguing that the disruption to Russia’s fuel industry is a greater threat to US supplies than the war in the Middle East.
Speaking from the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said Washington was still considering restrictions on diesel exports as the administration searched for ways to contain prices that have reached record levels.
“It’s going to start to come in. You know, diesel is really hurt much more, not by the Middle East, but by what’s going on in Russia, because those diesel refineries are being knocked out at a pretty alarming rate,” Trump said.
“And if that didn’t happen, we wouldn’t have a diesel problem. What’s happened in Russia with Ukraine has been really the biggest problem for diesel,” he added.
US diesel prices reached a record $6.53 a gallon last week, according to AAA data, while the wider fuel shock has become an increasingly acute political problem for the Trump administration.
Trump has said an export ban could bring some relief to US consumers by keeping more fuel within the domestic market, although he acknowledged that such a move could push up gasoline prices.
The president said he discussed the issue “every day” as Washington weighed its options. The administration is also considering regulatory changes to increase the availability of certain diesel supplies.
The White House is under pressure to contain the increase before November’s midterm elections, with higher diesel costs feeding into transportation, farming and industrial expenses and ultimately into consumer prices.
But the origins of the squeeze are broader than the Kremlin’s refinery losses.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright pointed to disruptions across several major exporting regions.
“We’ve lost some diesel exports from the Middle East, although we’re restoring those, and we’ve lost diesel exports from China,” Wright said. “So that’s a lot of interruptions.”
The US-Iran conflict has severely disrupted energy flows through the Middle East, while declining global inventories and damage to Russian refining infrastructure have tightened supplies further. Russia, traditionally one of the world’s largest diesel exporters, extended its diesel export restrictions through the end of October on Wednesday.
The result is a market in which disruption in one major producing region rapidly affects prices elsewhere. The US does not need to import Russian diesel for American motorists, farmers and hauliers to feel the consequences of lost Russian production: refined fuel is traded through an interconnected global market.
Analysts have therefore given varying estimates of the contribution made by Ukrainian attacks. One recent assessment cited by PolitiFact estimated that Ukrainian strikes could account for a substantial share of the recent diesel increase, while also identifying the Iran conflict and constraints on global refining capacity as major factors.
Ukraine has dramatically expanded its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. In August, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian refineries repeatedly, seeking to disrupt the fuel supplies and export revenues that help sustain Moscow’s war effort.
The attacks have had visible consequences inside Russia. Moscow has imposed export restrictions as domestic fuel shortages have worsened, while reports have indicated that some Russian regions have introduced rationing.
Trump has repeatedly demanded that Kyiv stop targeting Russian fuel infrastructure.
“Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing: He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets – but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel,” Trump said earlier this month.
“This isn’t done by the Middle East. This is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine… There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel because that’s hurting the world.”
The argument has placed the administration in a difficult position. Ukraine’s attacks are designed to weaken Russia’s ability to sustain its invasion, while the resulting disruption is now being felt through global fuel markets.
Moscow has nevertheless downplayed the military significance of the strikes. Vladimir Putin said in August that the attacks had failed to produce the battlefield effect Kyiv intended.
“How effective are they – are they effective at all? And do they have any impact on the situation along the line of contact as a whole? The ultimate result for the adversary turned out to be the exact opposite of what was expected. No turning point occurred,” Putin said.
For global fuel consumers, however, the economic consequences are increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Diesel futures in London were trading at almost $1,500 a tonne on Wednesday, roughly twice their level before the US launched its war with Iran, according to the Financial Times.
Washington is now attempting to manage a problem created by several simultaneous disruptions: war in the Middle East, attacks on Russian refineries, reduced Russian exports and tight global refining capacity.
The danger for the Trump administration is that a policy intended to shield American consumers could simply shift the shortage elsewhere. European officials have already urged Washington to maintain the free flow of US diesel exports, warning that an American restriction could intensify the global squeeze.
What began as a battlefield campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure has therefore evolved into a much wider economic confrontation — one in which the cost of the war is increasingly appearing on fuel pumps far beyond Ukraine and Russia.
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