Home Business News Statistician ‘estimates’ UK death toll has most likely has passed 47,000

Statistician ‘estimates’ UK death toll has most likely has passed 47,000

3rd May 20 2:08 pm

A statistician has warned that the true coronavirus death toll could well be higher than the governments figures.

The former employee for the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Jamie Jenkins has made his own figures over the coronavirus death toll.

Jenkins shared his own grim analyses and said, “Up to the 01 May 2020, estimate 47,200 deaths related to the Covid UK pandemic in Great Britain.

“This done by adjusting for deaths in the community and excess deaths related to the Covid-19 pandemic but not necessarily recorded as such.”

Jenkins wrote in a blog on Saturday for the Spectator, “Does the ‘improved’ estimate go far enough?

“I think the simple answer is no.

“The mortality data is rising at a rate that suggests many more are dying who have not been tested.

“As of 29 Wednesday April, my figure is 45,290 deaths linked to Covid-19 in Great Britain.

“This is far higher than the 26,097 issued by the government that day.”

He added, “The ONS tells us the total number of deaths related to Covid-19 and the day they occur, so you can deduce how many deaths are missed from just focusing on hospitals.

“I have taken data from 13 to 17 April 2020 and adjusted for deaths on those days not yet included using data from previous weeks.

“I compared this to hospital data and estimate deaths in the community [at the moment] are equivalent to those in hospitals.

“The assumption for my estimate is that total Covid-19 related deaths are double the daily hospital figures.

“This is in line with information from the National Records of Scotland issued on 29 April 2020, where deaths in the community were slightly more than double those in hospital for the latest Scottish data.”

Looking at the death toll in the foreseeable future, Jenkins tweeted, “Good news, we are past the peak in weekly deaths.

“Not so good news, I think we will continue with total deaths above the usual 9,700 per week average for the foreseeable future.

“Currently estimate around 47,200 deaths related to the #Covid19UK pandemic in Great Britain.”

On Sunday Jenkins said, “let’s not forget every single death is more than a number and they represent a life lost and a family tragedy.”

The UK’s death toll has reached 28,131 after 621 more deaths were recorded on Saturday, according to the government, and the country are set to take over Italy’s death toll by next week.

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