Over half (55%) say Keir Starmer has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister following the local election results, according to the latest polling from Savanta.
Half (49%) of Conservative voters say Keir Starmer now has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister following the local election results, including one in six (17%) that say he has a much better chance. Just one in nine (11%) Brits say Starmer now has a worse chance of becoming PM.
This is perhaps driven by half (53%) who say local elections are a good indication of what the next UK General Election results will be, including over two fifths (44%) of Conservative voters and seven in ten (70%) Labour voters.
A third (33%) of the public perceive a Labour majority to be the most likely outcome of the next General Election, including a quarter (23%) of Conservative voters. A further 14% say the most likely outcome is a Labour-led government after a hung parliament, meaning that half (47%) say a Labour government of some form will be the most likely election outcome, 11pts higher than those that believe a Conservative government (36%) is the most likely.
The next General Election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, but Brits say it should be held much sooner. One in six (17%) say the next General Election should be held in the next few months, while a further sixth (17%) say it should be held in Autumn 2023. A fifth (20%) say the next General Election should be held in Spring 2024, while one in ten (10%) say it should be Summer 2024. Only one in eight (13%) say the next General Election should be held in Winter 2024/January 2025.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “While the public are never great predictors of what will happen in the world of politics, perceptions of outcomes are always interesting as they can have an impact on behaviours.
“That almost half think Starmer now has a better chance of becoming Prime Minister, and that a Labour government is the most likely outcome of the next election, we start to see a country coming around to the idea of Labour in power again after 13 years.”