Bitcoin failed once again to establish firm footing above 90,000 dollars, reflecting a market still hesitant to commit to a decisive direction.
The setup, however, may shift quickly this week as investors wait for the Federal Reserve decision and, more importantly, Jerome Powell’s tone.
A dovish surprise shift from Powell at Jackson Hole back in August boosted Bitcoin by 4% and Ethereum by 14%. Traders now might be wondering whether a similar tone this week could reignite momentum.
But does bitcoin have what it takes to make a huge recovery as it did in August? The picture is very mixed when looking at various driving factors.
For the moment, spot ETF flows suggest limited conviction for a clear direction. According to SoSo Value, December trading has not produced a single inflow or outflow above the 100-million-dollar mark except once, mirroring the indecision that dominated late November as well. This absence of directional capital keeps Bitcoin confined to tactical trading rather than sustained accumulation.
Futures markets are equally muted. Data from CoinGlass shows total open interest hovering around 127 billion dollars, near May’s lows, signalling that leveraged long traders are staying on the side lines. The fear of sudden liquidation remains unresolved, keeping speculative positioning suppressed at a time when bullish catalysts are needed most.
Spot market behaviour reinforces the same indecision. Even as price action tilts slightly upward, Coinbase on-balance volume is moving sideways, revealing a market that is neither accumulating nor exiting aggressively. The stability is notable, but it does not yet amount to a foundation for a breakout.
On-chain activity presents a mixed picture too. According to BGeometrics, whales controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC showed no net change yesterday and 43 wallets remained smaller over the month but rose by 9 from a week ago. Humpbacks, holding above 10,000 BTC have been flat day-to-day and decreased by 3 in a week, while sharks in the 100 to 1,000 BTC category posted small weekly declines. The distribution is not alarming, but it reflects a market still searching for depth in long-term conviction.
The broader backdrop, however, is becoming more supportive of risk assets. According to The Wall Street Journal, investors are gaining confidence as valuations remain elevated but far from historical extremes, helped by falling Treasury yields. Economic growth is still strong enough to support earnings, while holiday spending and consumer demand have held firm. The rally is widening beyond mega-cap tech, with the Russell 2000 and equal-weight indexes nearing record highs. Anchored inflation expectations and improving long-term growth prospects add further support.
This tailwind matters for crypto because stronger risk appetite typically eases liquidity constraints and encourages rotation into alternative assets.
Yet a structural risk continues to overhang the entire ecosystem. Strategy’s mNAV remains below one with no sign of improvement, making it harder for the company to attract new capital. If this discount persists, the narrative around Bitcoin treasury companies could erode sharply. The scenario is not theoretical; it represents the most significant single-firm risk to Bitcoin’s broader market perception.
In this environment, Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment. A dovish Powell could revive the appetite needed to push the asset back into a bullish trajectory, but the lack of ETF flows, subdued futures activity and mixed on-chain accumulation keep the path uncertain. The market is positioned for a catalyst, and whether Powell provides it will determine if Bitcoin’s next move is a recovery or another failed attempt above 90,000.
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