ECB holds rates as inflation climbs to 3.0%

The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates on hold, in line with Cebr projections, despite inflation rising to an estimated 3.0% in April 2026.

Today’s data release indicates that price growth is now substantially above the ECB’s 2% target, driven primarily by energy prices, which have surged by 10.9% year-on-year, 5.8 percentage points higher than the reading for March.

The ECB’s decision reflects substantial uncertainty over the duration of the Iran conflict, and therefore the persistence of the current inflation shock.

This backdrop suggests the ECB will remain alert to the path of inflation, keeping the door open to further policy tightening.