A new opinion poll has raised fresh pressure on Sir Keir Starmer ahead of next week’s local elections, suggesting Labour could suffer some of its heaviest mid-term losses in decades amid growing signs of voter volatility.
Analysis by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher indicates Labour could lose as many as 1,850 council seats in next week’s vote, equivalent to around 70 per cent of the 2,557 it is defending.
If realised, the projection would mark the party’s worst performance for a governing party in a mid-term local election cycle in roughly 30 years.
The findings come as the local elections are widely viewed within Westminster as a key test of the Government’s standing after two years in office, with senior Labour figures privately acknowledging the scale of potential losses.
Kim McGuinness, Labour’s mayor for the North East, said the results — if reflected in actual outcomes — would need to be treated as a “wake-up call” for the Government’s direction.
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Speaking to Times Radio, she said she did not believe it was “impossible” for Sir Keir to remain leader in the event of significant losses, but stressed that a change in approach would be necessary. “The turnaround has to happen,” she said.
She added: “I do think he has got to take it as a wake-up call, and the turnaround has to happen.
There has to be a real recognition that people do not feel listened to, do not feel understood, do not feel like the government is delivering on their priorities, and that has to change.
“I think there’s that awareness, I think they know that, but now it has to happen.”
The projections also suggest turbulence across the wider political landscape. The Conservatives are forecast to lose around 600 seats under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, while Reform UK is expected to make substantial gains, potentially taking around 1,550 seats, largely in areas outside major cities.
The Green Party is also projected to expand its representation, with gains of around 500 seats concentrated in London and other urban centres.
The figures point to a fragmented electoral picture, with traditional party loyalties under strain and smaller parties continuing to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the main Westminster parties.
The political backdrop is further complicated by internal Labour tensions, with speculation continuing over potential leadership challenges.
Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham have both been linked in reports to possible future bids for the party leadership, though neither has made any formal move.
Conservative peer and pollster Lord Hayward described the projections as “bad news” for the Prime Minister, who is also facing political difficulty over the fallout from Lord Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador and ongoing questions over Labour’s polling performance relative to rival parties.
With polling day approaching, attention is now focused on whether the projected national trends will be reflected on the ground — and what impact the results could have on the Government’s political authority heading into the second half of its term.
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