Home Business News Boris has a less than 25% chance of surviving the year as PM, according to the Smarkets exchange

Boris has a less than 25% chance of surviving the year as PM, according to the Smarkets exchange

by LLB political Reporter
25th Jan 22 1:44 pm

Boris Johnson now has a less than 25% chance of surviving the year as Prime Minister, according to the latest betting-market prices on the Smarkets exchange.

The chance of Sue Gray’s report being published this week was over 60% until this morning’s breaking news that the Met Police will investigate parties in Downing Street, which will now delay the release of the report.

The Chancellor Rishi Sunak remains favourite to replace Johnson as Tory leader at 36% implied probability, with Jeremy Hunt (11%) close to overtaking Liz Truss (13%) into second.

Tom Tugendhat has emerged as the dark horse candidate, now in fourth place and given a 6% chance of winning the next leadership contest.

  • Selected Smarkets prices related to Boris Johnson:
    • 22% – to announce resignation in January
    • 16% – vote of no confidence triggered in January
    • 29% – to be replaced by the end of March
    • 77% – to be replaced in 2022

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “For the betting markets, it’s increasingly looking like a question of when rather than if Boris Johnson is evicted from Number 10.

“The latest party revelations will not have helped, but the odds suggest he may not be out of the door imminently. The chance of a no-confidence vote being triggered before the end of January dipped to 16% this morning on the news that the Met Police will investigate parties in Downing Street.

“Rishi Sunak is a strong favourite to replace him with polls of Tory members indicating he is by far the most popular candidate. Anyone rushing to put their money down on the Chancellor might want to remember that Conservative leadership contests have often produced surprising results with Michael Portillo, David Davis and Boris Johnson himself (in 2016) having been favourites since the turn of the century who failed to win.

“The dark horse emerging from the pack appears to be Tom Tugendhat.

“He’s overtaken a lot of better-known names into fourth place in the betting. Punters seem to be judging that a new face with a military background and foreign affairs expertise could be a good option for the Tories right now.”

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