Leading scientists have compared the UK is looking likely to be on the same trajectory and have compared the rate of coronavirus infections to that of Italy.
Scientists have said the UK could be similar to how Italy currently is within two weeks. On Monday evening the Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte, ordered 60m people to stay at home and must get permission for essential travel.
In a TV address to the Italian nation Conte said the “emergency measures” are to protect the vulnerable and elderly, he said, “there is no more time.”
University College London biology professor, Dr Francis Balloux said, “The trajectory of the epidemic in the UK is so far roughly comparable to the one in Northern Italy, but with the epidemic in Northern Italy two to three weeks ahead of the situation in the UK.”
The death rate in Italy has doubled over night to 463, which is around 5% and 9,172 people are confirmed to be infected and 724 people have recovered.
The number of cases of coronavirus since 21 February has soared from three to 9,172, the UK has rose from nine to 321.
Professor Mark Handley of Networked Systems and part-time Roboticist at UCL posted the below data.
Here's the coronavirus data, overlayed with the dates offset by the amounts shown. One of these countries is not like the rest. Everyone else will be Italy in 9-14 days time. pic.twitter.com/VESY54X1gP
— Mark Handley (@MarkJHandley) March 9, 2020
Professor Giacomo Grasselli a senior Italian government health official said on Tuesday coronavirus outbreak “was like a bomb that exploded” and warned, the virus spreads “very quickly, like a fire.”
Professor Grasselli, who is coordinating the network of intensive care units in Lombardy, told the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire programme, “What happened to us is like a bomb that exploded.
“The only way to win this battle is to change the behaviour of the people, they have to stay at home, they have to avoid crowded places, they have to wash their hands.”
Adding, “I would be very careful in this period because it spreads very quickly, it’s like a fire.”
Dr Daniele Macchini who is at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak has spoken out and has said the virus is a “tsunami that has swept us all.”
Coronavirus is spreading so fast doctors are making comparisons to war time triage medics who are deciding on who lives and who dies as there are limited numbers of beds in the intensive care unit.
In just over two weeks Italy has reported over 9,000 cases and 463 deaths from the deadly coronavirus.
He admitted “the need not to create panic” however, “the message of the danger of what is happening” is not reaching people.
Dr Harries told Sky’s Kay Burley, “We will have significant numbers in a way which I think the country is not used to… so large numbers of the population will become infected, but because it’s a naive population, nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently.”
The health chief said more people will die as the fatality rate will rise before it falls.
The prime minister said, “the more we can delay the peak of the spread to the summer, the better the NHS will be able to manage.”