For much of the war, Vladimir Putin has been able to wage destruction against Ukrainian cities, secure in the knowledge that Moscow itself remained largely beyond reach.
That assumption may soon be tested.
Ukraine’s rapidly expanding domestic missile industry claims it could begin test flights of a new ballistic missile capable of reaching the Russian capital within months, marking a potentially significant shift in the balance of strategic pressure between Kyiv and Moscow.
According to Denys Shtilerman, co-founder of Ukrainian defence company Fire Point, engine testing is expected to conclude this month, clearing the final major obstacle before flight trials begin.
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The missile’s guidance systems, airframe and key components have already been completed, he said. If initial tests prove successful, subsequent launches could be directed towards Moscow itself.
“I expect that this summer, or at the latest in early autumn, we will begin test flights toward Moscow,” Shtilerman said.
The comments will send an uncomfortable message to the Kremlin.
For more than three years, Russia has subjected Ukraine to relentless missile and drone bombardments, repeatedly targeting energy infrastructure, military facilities and civilian population centres. Moscow has launched thousands of long-range strikes while largely assuming that its own political and military heartland remained insulated from similar threats.
That calculation is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
Ukrainian drones are already striking targets deep inside Russian territory with growing frequency. Strategic bomber bases, oil depots, radar stations, ammunition facilities and naval installations have all found themselves within Kyiv’s expanding reach.
Now Ukraine’s defence sector believes it is approaching the next stage: indigenous ballistic missiles capable of threatening targets hundreds of miles beyond the front line.
The symbolism would be profound.
For Putin, Moscow has long represented not merely Russia’s capital but the embodiment of state power and national prestige. The image of a secure and untouchable centre has been central to the Kremlin’s narrative throughout the conflict.
The prospect of Ukrainian-made missiles flying towards the Russian capital — even as test launches — would challenge that perception directly.
It would also raise difficult questions about Russia’s extensive air defence network, which has already been exposed by repeated Ukrainian drone incursions. Despite vast spending on missile shields and radar systems, Ukrainian strikes have repeatedly penetrated supposedly protected areas.
Shtilerman said operational targeting decisions would ultimately rest with Ukraine’s military leadership. However, he suggested that key symbolic sites in Moscow could become legitimate deterrent targets should Russia continue its campaign against Ukrainian civilians.
The missile programme forms part of a broader effort by Ukraine to reduce reliance on Western weapons systems and develop a sovereign defence-industrial base capable of sustaining a prolonged conflict.
Fire Point is simultaneously advancing the FREYJA missile defence project, a joint Ukrainian-European initiative intended to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. The company recently unveiled successful testing of its FP-7.X interceptor, which it hopes will eventually form the backbone of a domestically produced missile shield.
The ambition is considerable. So too is the urgency.
Ukraine continues to face persistent shortages of air-defence interceptors as Russia expands missile production and intensifies long-range attacks. Building indigenous capabilities has therefore become both a military necessity and a strategic priority.
Whether Fire Point’s ballistic missile ultimately fulfils its promise remains to be seen. Weapons development is littered with delays, setbacks and technical challenges.
But the direction of travel is unmistakable.
Every month that passes, Ukraine’s ability to strike deeper into Russian territory grows more sophisticated. Every successful drone raid further erodes the illusion that distance alone can guarantee security.
For years, the Kremlin has exported war while assuming it could keep the consequences at arm’s length.
Ukraine’s missile engineers appear determined to prove otherwise.
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