Gold has outpaced even the most bullish expectations of precious-metals investors, with the price in sterling posting its sharpest monthly rise in more than a decade as concerns over government debt, fiscal deficits and the risk of currency debasement return to the fore.
The precious metal has climbed more than 13 per cent in August alone, reaching about £3,400 a troy ounce and matching a forecast that BullionVault’s clients made for the entire six months to Christmas.
The move marks gold’s strongest monthly advance in pounds since the shock following the Brexit referendum in June 2016, underscoring the renewed appetite for an asset increasingly viewed by investors as protection against fiscal and monetary instability.
BullionVault’s mid-year survey, conducted in June, found that its global client base expected gold to rise 14 per cent during the second half of 2026 — the most optimistic six-month forecast in the survey’s decade-long history.
Instead, the market has already delivered virtually the entire gain in little more than a month.
“Yet again, the gold market is telling investors and traders that they simply aren’t bullish enough,” said Adrian Ash, BullionVault’s director of research.
“Gold outran professional and private investor forecasts last year. Now gold is making its steepest price jump in a decade.”
The rally is also being accompanied by renewed buying from private investors, suggesting that the surge has yet to trigger a broad rush to take profits.
“Rather than fading this surge or taking profit,” Ash said, “private investors are buying into gold’s current price rise.”
He argued that the economic consequences of the Iran war had increasingly become embedded in market expectations, allowing longer-term concerns about government finances to regain prominence.
“The West’s huge government debts, not least in the UK, look increasingly unsustainable,” Ash said.
“Gold in contrast remains the ultimate hard asset, prized and trusted worldwide as a physical store of value which cannot be created at will nor defaulted on.”
BullionVault said net demand among its customers was now running at its strongest level since June 2025, with investors buying almost £12 million of gold so far this month.
The purchases have lifted the total value of customer holdings stored through the London-based platform to about £4.8 billion, the highest level since March.
The bullion is stored and insured across vaults in London, New York, Singapore, Toronto and Zurich, with the Swiss location remaining the most popular among customers.
The latest surge highlights the extent to which gold has moved beyond its traditional role as a defensive asset during market shocks and become a broader hedge against doubts over the sustainability of western public finances.
For UK investors, the sterling price has provided an additional boost as concerns over the currency compound the underlying rise in the dollar-denominated gold price.
BullionVault said new UK customers typically begin with around £500 before building their holdings towards roughly £2,500 over the following three months.
The figures suggest the latest rally is not being driven solely by large institutional investors. Retail buyers are also increasing their exposure as gold pushes deeper into record territory — a sign that the market’s long-running bullish narrative may be broadening just as governments face mounting pressure to contain debt and deficits.
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