Rishi Sunak’s leadership victory has improved the odds of a Conservative win at the next general election, according to the latest prices on the Smarkets betting exchange.
Labour remain strong favourites but the chance of the Tories winning most seats has moved up from 27% to 36%, whilst the odds of a Labour majority fell from 52% to 43%.
Sunak is given a 25% chance of remaining as Prime Minister after the next general election, with Keir Starmer on 72%.
A snap election before the end of the year remains highly unlikely, currently trading at under 5%, but the odds of a 2023 vote have continued to rise, now rated as a 23% chance.
Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick, said, “Betting markets had made Rishi Sunak favourite to succeed Liz Truss ever since the ill-fated mini-budget last month, and he was rated at a 77% chance even before news of Johnson’s withdrawal broke last night.
“Prices on Smarkets moved in favour of the Conservatives’ general election chances following his victory. Labour remain strong favourites to win most seats but their prospects of an overall majority have fallen from 52% to 43%.
“Calls for an early general election are not given much chance of success based on the latest betting numbers.
“A snap 2022 election is trading at less than a 5% chance and even a 2023 vote is currently at only a 23% probability, albeit moving up modestly in recent days.”
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