Labour is heading into the Makerfield by-election with what bookmakers describe as an overwhelming advantage, with Andy Burnham closing in on a crucial victory for the party.
One bookmaker has priced Labour at just 1/25 to win the North West seat, suggesting the contest has swung heavily in the party’s favour on the eve of polling day.
Reform had emerged as the strongest challenger during the campaign, attracting significant backing from bettors and fuelling speculation that the party could deliver another shock breakthrough in Labour’s traditional heartlands.
But the market has shifted in recent days, with Reform’s odds drifting as Labour has strengthened its grip on the race.
The result will be closely watched as a test of whether Reform can continue its momentum among disillusioned voters, or whether Labour can hold firm in a constituency where it is seeking to reassert its dominance.
For Burnham, a victory would provide a major boost — while for Reform, defeat would raise fresh questions over whether its recent electoral advances can translate into wins against Labour in the North West.
British Politics – Makerfield betting odds
| Winning party | Odds | Implied probability |
| Labour | 1/25 | 96% |
| Reform | 5/1 | 17% |
| Restore | 20/1 | 5% |
British Politics – Makerfield betting split (bets placed through Oddschecker in Tuesday)
| Winning party | Percentage of bets placed |
| Labour | 48% |
| Reform | 33% |
| Restore | 13% |
| Other | 6% |
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “Labour has been the odds-on favourites for Makerfield since the market opened earlier this year.
Reform has posed strong competition but their odds have drifted this week from 3/1 out to 5/1. A Labour win looks like a formality as their odds continue to shorten with one bookie offering a price of 1/25.”




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