Donald Trump is now given a 20% chance of returning to the White House in 2024, having fallen as low as 3% in the wake of the storming of Congress in January. Today, for the first time, he edged ahead of his presidential successor Joe Biden, who dropped to 19%.
Vice-president Kamala Harris remains in third place on 13%, though this is down from when she was the market leader at 21% in March.
Current market prices put Trump way ahead in the race to be the Republican nominee, with a 45% chance of winning the GOP primary. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Hayley lead the chasing pack on 14% and 11% respectively.
Smarkets Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick said, “Trump’s odds have been improving all year and in particular since Biden’s poll ratings began declining this summer. There is absolutely no sign of Republican voters deserting him and he leads every primary poll by a distance.
“Many forecasters had predicted that health or legal issues might stop Trump from re-election, but the latest Smarkets prices imply that there is a two-in-three chance he’ll run for the White House again in three years’ time.
“It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favourite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician.
“It’s early days, but the latest market signals suggest there is every chance we could be heading for a Biden vs. Trump rematch in 2024 with Trump currently having a very slight edge according to the betting.”