Tories set to lose record number of seats at the next general election

With Rishi Sunak set to speak at the Tory conference on Wednesday punters backing the blue party to lose more than 201 seats (5/2) at the next general election.

In the last 100 years, the Tories have only lost more than 200 seats in one election in 1945.

Labour are odds-on at 8/15 to win a majority, while the Tories are massive 10/1 outsiders to hold on to their majority at the next general election.

Betfair Exchange: Overall majority at next general election

Labour 8/15 (67% chance)

No overall majority 11/4 (27%)

Conservative majority 10/1 (9%)

Betfair Exchange: How many seats will the Conservative’s lose at the next election?

No losses: 19/1 (5% chance)

1-50: 7/1 (12%)

51-100: 4/1 (19%)

101-150: 7/2 (23%)

151-200: 16/5 (24%)

201 or more: 5/2 (29%)

Betfair Exchange: Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner

Labour: 1/20 (95% chance)

SNP: 16/1 (6%)

Conservative: 379/1 (less than 1%)

Lib Dems: 999/1 (less than 1%)

Betfair Exchange: When will next general election take place?

2023: 49/1 (2% chance)

January-March 2024: 29/1 (3%)

April-June 2024: 3/1 (25%)

July-September 2024: 11/1 (8%)

October-December 2024: 4/9 (67%)

2025 or later: 12/1 (8%)

Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: “It’s been clear for some time now that punters have pretty much made their mind up on what the outcome of the next general election will be. Labour have been heavily backed in the last two years, and they are the odds-on favourites at 8/15 to win a majority.

“So far, more than £3m has been traded on Betfair Exchange’s next general election markets, with most of that going in favour of Sir Keir Starmer’s party across the various markets.”

“For Rishi Sunak and the Conservative party, the odds would suggest anything they hope to achieve between now and when the country next goes to the polling station will be a case of damage limitation.

“We’ve taken a number of bets on the Tories to lose a record number of seats, with punters backing them to lose 201 or more at 5/2, which is a 29% chance.

“Those odds could be set to move further with the upcoming Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, with Labour looking to gain ground in Scotland. Starmer’s party are the overwhelming favourites at 1/20 (95% chance) to take the seat from the SNP.”