Reform UK set for a major victory in next months’ elections

A major new opinion poll suggests a potentially dramatic reshaping of England’s local political map ahead of next month’s elections, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK projected to make substantial gains.

The JL Partners survey of more than 6,000 respondents indicates Reform UK could take control of around 69 English councils (with a range of 56–69), which would amount to roughly half of those contested.

If realised, it would mark one of the most significant breakthroughs for a challenger party in recent local election cycles.

The poll also points to heavy losses for the governing Labour Party, which could retain around 42 councils and face widespread defeats across traditional strongholds. In Wales, the results suggest Labour could be at risk of losing its dominant position in the devolved legislature for the first time.

In the devolved Welsh parliament, the Senedd, the poll projects Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party with around 33 seats, with Reform UK on 29 and Labour falling to third place with 17.

For the Conservatives, the forecast is equally challenging. The poll suggests they could lose control of several county councils, including Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk, to Reform UK. In other areas, such as East and West Sussex and Hampshire, they are predicted to trail either Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats.

While opinion polls of this scale can be volatile and sensitive to turnout assumptions—particularly in local elections—the results, if reflected in actual voting, would point to significant fragmentation of the UK political landscape and further erosion of traditional two-party dominance.

The poll indicates that Labour will continue as the largest party in London, maintaining control of 19 boroughs.

James Johnson, the co-founder of JL Partners, told The Telegraph: “If these results come to pass, we will be looking at a major political earthquake across Britain.

“It could be the worst local election ever for Labour in England, a collapse for the Conservatives in their historic Blue Wall heartlands, and a brutal third place for Starmer’s party in Wales.

“One cannot overstate how seismic that result in Wales would be – it is a place that has stayed Labour even in the party’s darkest days. Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and the Greens are all contributing to this, but it is Reform that looks set to be the real story, potentially moving into opposition in Wales and securing England councils across the country.

“People who have been claiming Reform’s momentum has slowed may look very foolish indeed after these local elections take place.”