With less than two weeks to go until the Makerfield by-election, Labour has opened up a commanding lead that now appears increasingly difficult for rivals to overturn, according to betting markets and recent polling trends.
Labour has shortened to around 1/6 with bookmakers, reflecting what traders describe as a near-certain path to victory. The implied probability of a Labour win now sits at over 85 per cent, with momentum accelerating in recent days as support for challenger parties shows signs of slipping away.
Reform UK and Restore Britain have both drifted in the betting, with neither campaign appearing to gain meaningful traction in the final stretch. Despite early expectations of a tighter contest, the race has steadily tilted in Labour’s favour, with punters increasingly consolidating behind the opposition party’s candidate.
By Tuesday, more than half of all recorded bets placed in recent trading sessions were backing Labour, underscoring a sense in the market that the outcome may already be largely decided barring a late surprise.
For Labour, the figures will be interpreted as evidence of a disciplined local campaign and favourable national conditions. For opponents, however, the widening gap raises questions about whether the contest has slipped out of reach before the final campaigning weekend has even begun.
While by-elections are often prone to late volatility, the current trajectory points to a contest that is becoming less competitive by the day — and one in which Labour now stands as the clear front-runner.
British Politics – Makerfield betting odds
| Winning party | Odds | Implied probability |
| Labour | 1/6 | 86% |
| Reform | 4/1 | 20% |
| Restore Britain | 9/1 | 10% |
| Green | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
| Conservatives | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
British Politics – Makerfield betting split (bets placed through Oddschecker this week)
| Winning party | Percentage of bets placed |
| Labour | 52% |
| Reform | 32% |
| Labour | 13% |
| Conservatives | 2% |
| Other | 1% |
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “As the Makerfield by-election approaches, Labour have stolen a march on Reform and Restore Britain.
“From 4/6 a month ago, Labour are now as short as 1/6 to win the crucial constituency. Bettors have rallied behind Labour today with 52% of bets expecting them to get over the line on June 18th.”
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