Gold remains vulnerable in the near term amid increasingly hawkish monetary policy expectations and elevated bond yields.
Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed growing concern among policymakers that inflationary pressures linked to Middle East tensions could prove more persistent.
This has strengthened the higher-for-longer narrative and supported Treasury yields, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.
However, renewed diplomatic efforts have improved the prospect of de-escalation. Any progress toward a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices lower, ease inflation concerns, and, in turn, bring bond yields down, which could reduce some of the pressure on gold. If tensions flare again, the market will have to weigh two competing forces: safe-haven demand on one side, and higher oil, firmer inflation expectations, and higher yields on the other.
Despite these near-term headwinds, structural support for bullion remains intact, as ongoing central-bank purchases continue to provide an important floor under the market. Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and, more specifically, to how they feed through into oil, inflation expectations, and bond yields.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within its range, with the all-time high printed in January acting as resistance and the daily 200 SMA providing support. From a portfolio perspective, we remain flat after selling the long positions we had held since March 2024 above $5,000 at the start of the year. For now, we are waiting for a breakout and a clearer trend direction. With the broader trend still bullish, we favour a move to the upside, but we will wait for confirmation before buying back in, with $10,000 remaining the next long-term target.
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