Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’ odds on Smarkets have continued to climb this week and this morning she is at a new high of 90% to win the Tory leadership race.
Having been rated at 40% last week, Rishi Sunak’s chance of becoming the next prime minister has crashed to just 10%.
Kwasi Kwarteng is rumoured to be Truss’ choice for Chancellor and the latest odds indicate he has a 42% chance of taking over from Nadhim Zahawi.
Labour’s odds of winning most seats at the next election have been rising, and while the Conservatives remain narrow favourites to come out as the biggest party, a Labour minority government is rated as the most likely outcome (35%).
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “Despite there being five weeks of campaigning to come, the betting markets have become increasingly confident that Liz Truss is very likely to be our next Prime Minister. When the race first narrowed down to the final two, Truss was rated a 60-40 favourite to win, but the odds have continued to move in her favour to today’s 90-10 advantage.
“Many were forecasting that Rishi Sunak would be a better campaigner, but Truss’s debate performances have beaten expectations and, if anything, Sunak’s team appears to be the one on the defensive. With voting opening next week, bettors feel that he has limited time to turn this around.
“Some commentators have said that Truss would be an ideal candidate for Keir Starmer to be facing at the next election. Labour’s odds of winning the most seats have improved a little, but the betting markets still think the Tories are slight favourites to remain the largest party. That may not be enough to stop Starmer becoming PM though and a Labour minority government is rated as the most likely outcome at 35%.”