Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning an autumn 2024 election but odds suggest a defeat is on the cards for the Conservatives with Labour odds-on at 4/5 to win a Commons majority in the next vote.
The Tories are outsiders at 15/2 to command a majority after the next election and even a hung parliament is more likely at 15/8.
The odds suggest the Tories have a slim chance of winning the most seats at odds of 7/2 to claim any more than any other party, while Labour are clear 1/4 favourites to claim the most support.
2024 is the 10/11 favourite for the year Sunak is replaced as Conservative leader with punters predicting a poor election could spell the end of his tenure.
Betfair Exchange – Next UK general election overall majority
Labour majority 4/5
No overall majority 15/8
Conservative majority 15/2
Betfair Exchange – Next UK election most seats
Betfair Exchange – Year Rishi Sunak is replaced as Conservative leader
2025 or later 5/4
Betfair Exchange – Next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer 1/3
Boris Johnson 18/1
Kemi Badenoch 18/1
Betfair exchange spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, “Rishi Sunak has one eye on the future after reportedly circling autumn 2024 in the calendar as the next time the nation heads to the polls for an election.
“The odds give Sunak’s party a slim chance of success in the next general election and the Conservatives are huge 15/2 outsiders to maintain a majority with Labour clear odds-on 4/5 favourites to win back a majority for the first time since 1997.
“The odds don’t look good for Sunak and punters predict 2024 will be his last year as leader of the Tories as next year is the 10/11 favourite for his exit date, with Keir Starmer the 1/3 frontrunner to replace him as Prime Minister.”