Home Business News Warnings that 75,000 people could die this winter from Omicron unless the government puts harsher restrictions in place

Warnings that 75,000 people could die this winter from Omicron unless the government puts harsher restrictions in place

by LLB Reporter
11th Dec 21 12:42 pm

New modelling has shown that between 1 December and 30 April next year that there could be 175,000 hospital admission and 24,700 deaths and as many as 75,000 could die from Omicron this winter unless the government imposes more measures.

Even with an optimistic scenario, at its peak there could be more than 2,000 hospital admissions each day.

Experts have warned that measures above and beyond the government’s Plan B restrictions may well be required to curb the spread of Omicron.

Scientists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), who also sit on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have given the grim warning.

They said that working from home and booster jabs might not be enough to prevent the spread of the virus and by January next year they have warned of 2,400 hospital admissions.

If the government does impose tighter restrictions in January to control the wave then this will reduce hospital admissions by 53,000 and 7,600 deaths.

The group are calling on more measures which includes restrictions on indoor hospitality with restrictions on how many people are allowed to gather in one venue.

The worst scenario the modellers came up with was if Omicron becomes immune from vaccines and should the booster jab becomes less effective.

If the government takes no additional measures this then lead to a peak of hospital admissions, two times the size which was seen in January this year.

The study by the group which has not been peer reviewed shows that without the additional measures, there could be 492,000 hospitalisations with a shocking 74,800 deaths.

Dr Rosanna Barnard, who co-led the research, said, “In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home.

“However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed.

“Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.

“Nobody wants to endure another lockdown but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if Omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta.

“It is crucial for decision-makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology.”

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