A former US presidential envoy for Ukraine has warned that Russia is failing to achieve its strategic objectives in the war, arguing that Moscow is “not winning” despite continued fighting on the ground.
Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg said Ukraine deserved “full credit” for its battlefield performance, pointing to what he described as its ability to withstand a significantly larger adversary.
Speaking to Fox News, Lt. Gen. Kellogg said Ukraine’s resistance had been “very, very strong” given the disparity in size and resources between the two sides.
“You’ve got to give them full credit for what they’ve done when you look at their mere size compared with the Russians,” he said.
However, he also cautioned that Kyiv should be mindful of the limits of Western support, suggesting that European allies should carry a greater share of the burden.
“This is a European issue, the Europeans need to solve this,” he said. “The Europeans need to get involved with this.”
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Lt. Gen. Kellogg also raised concerns about what he described as Russia’s losses in the conflict, claiming that Moscow was facing significant human and economic strain.
He said Russia had suffered “about 1.2 to 1.4 million dead and wounded” — figures which have not been independently verified.
“Remember, they left Afghanistan after losing only 18,000,” he added, arguing that the scale of casualties was creating pressure on the Kremlin leadership.
At the same time, he said Ukraine had retained most of its territory since 2014 and had mounted a strong defensive effort against Russian forces.
“The Ukrainians have only lost about 1 per cent of the land since 2014,” he said. “They’ve fought very, very well.”
He delivered a blunt assessment of Moscow’s position in the conflict.
“I would tell the Russians, you’re not winning this war, you’re losing this war,” he said.
Lt. Gen. Kellogg suggested that a decisive Russian victory would have required far deeper advances into Ukrainian territory.
“My idea of winning is you’d be across the Dnipro River, you’d be in Kharkiv, you’d be in Kyiv. You haven’t done that,” he said. “Why don’t you just go back to negotiate?”
He added that Russia would struggle to make further gains in eastern Ukraine due to heavily fortified Ukrainian positions.
“You’re not going to get the rest of the Donbas unless you’re going to fight for it,” he said.
His remarks come as battlefield assessments suggest Russian momentum has slowed in recent months.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said Russian forces recorded a net territorial loss in April — the first such reversal since Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into the Kursk region.
The ISW estimated Russia lost around 116 square kilometres during the month, with daily gains slowing significantly compared with the previous year.
Between late 2025 and spring 2026, Russian advances reportedly declined sharply, with analysts attributing the slowdown to a combination of Ukrainian counterattacks, defensive fortifications, and operational strain on Russian units.
The report also suggested that Russian forces have increasingly relied on small-unit infiltration tactics in so-called “grey zones”, often failing to consolidate control over captured areas.
Analysts said the approach may create the appearance of progress without translating into sustained territorial gains.
Separately, the ISW noted continued pressure on Russia’s air operations, citing reported shortages of aircraft and personnel and reduced effectiveness in the use of glide bombs.
Taken together, the comments from Lt Gen Kellogg and recent battlefield assessments point to a conflict that remains highly active but increasingly characterised by attritional gains and contested momentum rather than decisive breakthroughs.
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