Trade tensions between the US and China will likely escalate further during the rest of the year and will have a negative but manageable impact on global growth, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today.
“We expect the trade dispute between the US and China and other countries to be prolonged, with further trade measures being put in place over the rest of 2018,” said Elena Duggar, Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board and co-author of the report. “Currently, we think that the trade dispute will stop short of full implementation of the most severe potential measures announced so far, including tariffs on all US automotive imports or a breakdown of NAFTA.”
In Moody’s central view, the trade dispute will have a manageable aggregate impact on global growth and inflation. However, if there is a large reaction in the financial markets or if confidence is undermined, the dispute has the potential to derail the global economy.
The trade restrictions are expected to cut about 0.25 percentage points off US real GDP growth in 2019, offsetting some of the economy’s underlying strong momentum and fiscal stimulus gains. US inflation is likely to rise this year and next, driven more by the healthy economy than tariffs.