The Conservative Party’s poor performance in Gorton and Denton, marked by a significant defeat, should raise concerns about its current standing and influence, making readers more attuned to political shifts.
While Kemi Badenoch’s party was not expected to perform well in the Greater Manchester constituency, given their previous difficulties at the ballot box, Sir John Curtice indicated on GB News that this only partially explains their poor results.
The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, achieved a historic victory with 14,980 votes, inspiring optimism and a sense of change for voters and analysts alike, as Hannah Spencer was elected as the area’s Member of Parliament, marking the Greens’ first-ever by-election win.
The Labour Party, which previously secured the seat with 50.8% of the vote share in the 2024 General Election, has now fallen to third place, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment and raising questions about future political trends.
Sir John said, “They’ve never won this constituency, but they were capable of getting around a third of the vote around 20, 30 years ago.
“They’ve now got 1.9% [of the vote]. That is an all-time low for the Conservative Party.”
He continued: “They only stood a chance if two of their opponents were evenly split, for instance, Labour and the Greens, and Reform managed to get above the line.
“At the edge of the of the day, the parties got 29%, which is in line with its standing in the opinion polls.
“Given that the constituency does contain a significant proportion of minority voters, and given that minority voters in general are largely disinclined to back Reform, they are after all, less concerned about immigration policies.
“This is not a constituency Reform were likely to do particularly well in also, but their vote was up by 15 points.”
Former-Tory minister Michelle Donelan told GB News, “We didn’t launch a large-scale campaign or allocate resources to this particular seat.
“It was never going to be our fight to have. It was a fight between the Reform Party, the Green Party, and allegedly, the Labour Party, but they came third.
“The analysis from last night’s by-election, I think, shows a crisis moment for Keir Starmer, given this was one of his safest seats. He’s now gone down to third place.”
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