The likelihood of Sir Keir Starmer being fined by the police has risen from 17% to 24%, according to the latest odds on the Smarkets betting exchange.
Smarkets’ prices suggest there is a 50% chance that a ‘beergate’ verdict will be announced at some point before 9 July.
The betting market on who might replace Starmer as Labour leader remains wide open. Andy Burnham is favourite with a 14% chance, but the Mayor of Greater Manchester would likely be unavailable should a vacancy emerge in the short term.
Others at the top of a tightly bunched market include Wes Streeting (12%), Lisa Nandy (11%), Rachel Reeves (11%) and Angela Rayner (10%).
Meanwhile, political bettors have become increasingly sceptical about the Scottish National Party’s proposed referendum next year, with the odds of a 19 October 2023 poll now down to just 5%.
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “The main takeaway from the latest odds is that we should be expecting a ‘beergate’ decision any time now. Rumours of a potential fine for Keir Starmer have seen the odds of him receiving a fixed penalty notice rise from 17% to 24% over the weekend.
“If Starmer is forced to resign, the race to succeed him as leader looks wide open. Long-time favourite Andy Burnham wouldn’t be eligible whilst outside of the Commons, ruling the Mayor of Greater Manchester out of the running in the immediate term.
“The odds elsewhere favour Labour electing their first permanent female leader with Lisa Nandy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Yvette Cooper all strong possibilities. However, Wes Streeting has been the big mover in the past year, moving up from a 3% chance to 12%.
“Meanwhile in Scotland, the prospects of Nicola Sturgeon’s independence vote going ahead on 19 October next year have been all but discounted by political bettors. The odds of the poll going ahead on the proposed date are now down to just 5%.”