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SNP knocking on the door of a majority but too close to call

by LLB Editor
5th May 21 12:56 pm

Ipsos MORI’s final 2021 Scottish Parliament election poll for STV News indicates that the SNP is on course to win significantly more of the vote than any other party at the election on 6th May.

The headline estimate of voting intention on the constituency vote is:

  • SNP: 50% (-3 compared with our last poll of 29 March – 4 April)
  • Scottish Labour: 22% (+4)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 20% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Green Party: 2% (unchanged)
  • Other: 1% (unchanged)

The headline estimate of voting intention on the regional list vote is:

  • SNP: 39% (+1)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+2)
  • Scottish Labour: 18% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Green Party: 12% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2)
  • The Alba Party: 2% (-1)
  • Other: 2% (unchanged)

These findings confirm that the SNP is going into Thursday’s election in a very strong position. However, it is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. This is both because specific local circumstances will play a role and because all polls are subject to a margin of error, which could easily be the difference between the SNP gaining an outright majority and falling short of this.

When it comes to the contest for second place, Labour and the Conservatives look to be going into the constituency vote contest neck and neck. The Conservatives look slightly more comfortably ahead on regional list voting intention (23%, compared with 18% for Labour).

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