Despite Kremlin claims that Russia’s fuel market is stabilising, shortages, rising prices and falling refinery output suggest a far more serious problem as the strain of a war economy is pushing against its limits.
Russian officials are constantly lying and have insisted that petrol supplies are improving, but Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says the apparent recovery is largely the result of moving existing fuel reserves between regions rather than a genuine increase in production.
The shortages remain severe in parts of Russia, including Tambov, Penza, Rostov, Volgograd and occupied Crimea.
The underlying problem is Russia’s refining network.
Ukraine’s long-range strikes on oil infrastructure have damaged facilities that are crucial to turning crude oil into usable fuel. Russia may remain an energy giant, but producing oil is not the same as keeping petrol stations supplied.
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The pressure is already appearing in prices.
Average petrol costs have climbed sharply compared with last year, adding further inflationary pressure on households and businesses already dealing with the economic demands of war.
For the Kremlin, the issue is not simply fuel availability. It is credibility.
Russia has spent years presenting itself as an unstoppable energy superpower. Yet a country rich in oil reserves is now struggling to guarantee stable fuel supplies at home.
Ukraine’s strategy is clear: rather than trying to match Russia’s industrial scale, it is targeting the infrastructure that keeps the war machine moving.
Each damaged refinery forces Moscow to spend more on repairs, security and emergency measures.
The Kremlin can control headlines. It can redirect supplies. It can claim stability.
But it cannot easily hide the economic consequences of a prolonged war.
The fuel crisis is a reminder that Russia’s greatest vulnerability may not be a shortage of resources — but the rising cost of using them to sustain Putin’s invasion.
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