FairFuelUK has warned that UK diesel prices could rise sharply despite crude oil prices stabilising, as a growing shortage of refining capacity tightens global fuel supplies.
Diesel is currently trading at around 190p per litre at UK forecourts, driven less by the cost of crude and increasingly by record-high refining margins.
The campaign group warned that Britain’s limited fuel reserves — estimated to provide just 23 to 26 days of cover — leave motorists and businesses highly exposed to further disruption.
Russia’s refining capacity has been reduced by an estimated 30 per cent following attacks on its energy infrastructure, while diesel exports have been curtailed. Refinery throughput in the Persian Gulf has also fallen by around 30 per cent amid continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Europe was already structurally short of diesel before the latest geopolitical shocks, while global refining margins have climbed to four-year highs, according to International Energy Agency data.
FairFuelUK said the result was a fundamental shift in the factors driving prices at the pump.
“Diesel is rising because refineries cannot produce enough — not because crude is expensive.”
The group warned that further Russian refinery outages or instability affecting shipping routes through the Persian Gulf could rapidly intensify the squeeze.
Even if crude prices remain broadly stable, constrained refining capacity could continue pushing wholesale diesel prices higher.
If the global refining crunch worsens, FairFuelUK estimates UK diesel prices could rise into a range of 195p to 205p per litre, adding further pressure to households, hauliers and businesses already facing elevated transport costs.
The warning highlights the growing risk that disruptions to fuel production, rather than shortages of crude itself, could become the next major driver of inflation in the UK.
FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox said: “Diesel is the commercial heartbeat of any economy. Brent hitting $100 is bad enough, but the real danger now is the diesel refining crunch. Diesel prices aren’t rising because oil is expensive — they’re rising because the world can’t refine enough of it. That’s a structural crisis, and it means UK pump prices are about to surge sharply. We’re already near 190p a litre, and without urgent action, diesel could smash through £2 a litre, hammering motorists, hauliers, small businesses and the entire economy. More than 40 countries have stepped in to protect drivers and keep inflation down. The UK must do the same — or we’ll sleepwalk into another cost‑of‑living shock.”
He added: “More than 40 countries have already intervened with fuel tax cuts, subsidies or price caps since the Iran Crisis started. The UK has not. WHY???”
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