Iran and the United States are locked in urgent negotiations over a ceasefire that could come into force within days, raising the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing a crisis that has rattled global energy markets.
The proposal, brokered by Pakistan, would impose an immediate halt to hostilities, followed by a race against time to secure a broader and more durable settlement. Diplomats say the coming 24 hours will be decisive.
At the heart of the plan is a simple but fragile premise: stop the war now, negotiate the peace later.
According to officials briefed on the talks, the framework centres on a 45-day ceasefire, during which negotiators would attempt to hammer out a permanent agreement.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows—would resume almost immediately, offering a lifeline to markets already on edge.
The proposed accord, informally dubbed the “Islamabad Accord”, would culminate in face-to-face talks in Islamabad after an initial period of remote negotiations.
But diplomats caution that the deal remains precarious. Behind the scenes, negotiations have been relentless. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has been in near-constant contact with senior figures on all sides, including, JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araqchi .
The intensity of those exchanges reflects the stakes: not just regional stability, but the smooth functioning of the global economy. For all the urgency, Iran has yet to yield. Officials in Tehran have made clear they will not be rushed into an agreement. A temporary ceasefire, they argue, is insufficient—particularly if it comes without guarantees against future attacks.
Iran is demanding a permanent ceasefire, not a pause with security assurances from Washington and its allies and sanctions relief and access to frozen assets privately, Iranian officials have voiced scepticism that the United States is prepared to commit to such terms. The contrast between the two sides is stark.
Washington appears focused on immediate de-escalation—stabilising the region and reopening vital shipping lanes. Tehran, by contrast, is seeking a broader settlement that would reshape the strategic balance. Bridging that gap will not be easy. Mediators, including Turkey and Egypt, are attempting to narrow the divide. But time is short, and trust is in even shorter supply.
Few waterways carry more global significance than the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption sends immediate shockwaves for oil prices, shipping costs and inflation expectations. A reopening would likely trigger a sharp, if temporary, easing in energy markets. Failure, however, could send prices surging once again. Donald Trump has added further pressure, calling for a swift resolution and warning of consequences if talks fail.
His intervention underscores the geopolitical urgency—but also the political risks of failure. Despite the flurry of diplomacy, no agreement has yet been reached. Iran has not formally responded. The United States has remained publicly silent. And multiple proposals continue to circulate behind closed doors.
What is clear is that the window for de-escalation is narrow. If a deal is struck, it could stabilise not only the region but the global economy. If it collapses, the consequences could be swift and severe. For now, the crisis hangs in the balance. The next 24 to 48 hours may determine whether the conflict steps back from the brink—or moves into a far more dangerous phase.
In a crisis defined by escalation, even a pause would be significant. But whether that pause can be turned into peace remains the central question.
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