One of the most unpredictable by-elections in recent years reaches its conclusion on Thursday, with bookmakers pointing to an unusually tight contest in Gorton & Denton.
According to the latest odds, the Green Party of England and Wales remains the narrow favourite at 4/6, which may inspire voters to believe their support can make a difference in the outcome.
The contest has defied traditional expectations in a constituency long associated with Labour dominance, underlining shifting political currents across urban England.
Betting markets split
Despite the Greens’ odds-on status, recent betting patterns, showing nearly equal support, highlight the race’s unpredictability and keep readers aware of the race’s fluid nature.
Over the past 12 hours, both parties have attracted almost identical support from punters:
- Green Party: 38% of bets
- Reform UK: 37% of bets
That razor-thin one-point edge highlights the race’s volatility, with momentum appearing fluid in the final stretch.
Why this matters
A Green victory would mark a significant breakthrough in a metropolitan Greater Manchester seat, reinforcing the party’s growing appeal in urban areas concerned with housing, climate and local governance.
A Reform win, meanwhile, would signal continued traction for Nigel Farage’s insurgent party in areas traditionally resistant to right-wing challengers, suggesting its message is resonating beyond coastal and post-industrial strongholds.
Unpredictable dynamics
Several factors have contributed to the uncertainty:
- Fragmentation of the traditional Labour vote
- Tactical voting calculations
- High-profile national campaigning
- Low-turnout volatility typical of by-elections
With bookmakers showing tightening volumes and near-identical backing, the outcome may depend heavily on voter turnout rather than just campaign momentum, emphasizing voters’ power in shaping the result.
By Thursday night, Gorton & Denton could either reinforce the Greens’ steady rise — or deliver another surprise in a political cycle increasingly defined by volatility.
Gorton & Denton By-election betting odds
| Winning party | Odds | Implied probability |
| Green | 4/6 | 60% |
| Reform | 5/2 | 29% |
| Labour | 4/1 | 20% |
| Advance UK | 200/1 | 1% |
Gorton & Denton By-election betting split (last 12 hours)
| Winning party | Percentage of bets placed |
| Green | 38% |
| Reform | 37% |
| Labour | 25% |
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “A back-and-forth betting battle has ensued in the build-up to the Gorton & Denton by-election.
With just a day to go until its conclusion, there is nothing to split the Green party and Reform in the betting split.
Green received 38% of bets placed over the last 12 hours while Reform was a fraction behind with 37%. Hannah Spencer and Green continue to be the shortest priced party at 4/6 while Reform are being backed at 5/2. Labour (4/1) remains in contention for the constituency they have held since 1935.”
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