A scientist has said that a second wave of coronavirus “could come in spring 2021” as the winter will most likely see people imposing their own “mini-quarantine” due to the cold weather.
Dr Ben Neuman, an associate professor at the University of Reading said that people during the winter months tend to stay indoors and natural wear scarfs and gloves which will help drive down transmission rates.
Professor Neuman warned that coronaviruses, like influenza are not always seasonal and are more likely to peak during spring.
Professor Neuman warned, “Instead, look for changes in behaviour that lead to mixing of people from different households, especially where masks would not be worn, as a potential source of Covid-19 – school reopenings, dinner parties and restaurants.”
Dr Neuman added that the rate of positive coronavirus tests could also become an inaccurate method for measuring Britain’s pandemic.
He said, “Paradoxically, an influx of people with the flu seeking Covid-19 tests could potentially drive down the percentage of positive tests, which would then misleadingly suggest that Covid-19 was decreasing.
“That is one reason why per cent positive rates should not be taken in isolation to monitor the pandemic.”
On Sunday the UK recorded 2,988 coronavirus infections in 24-hours, which is the highest daily surge since 23 May.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday, the UK’s rising infection numbers were “concerning,” and he admitted there had been a rise even in infections after taking into account a raised testing capacity.
Hancock added, “The rise in the number of cases that we have seen today is concerning.”
Paul Hunter, Professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline, “Normally coronaviruses hit in November, December time.
“This has come back sooner than I had anticipated.
“There was a report that went out to local authorities basically putting the peak at January. I think that’s probably right. Certainly December-January for the peak [but with fewer deaths].”
He added, “They are still pretty much flat-lining but the way the death statistics are reported is very late – so it’s difficult to be sure what’s going on.
“They are showing a small increase, but are still very low.
“Looking at what happened in the States you probably don’t start noticing the deaths for about a month after the case numbers have started going up.
“I think it’s likely that case numbers are going to continue to increase throughout the next few months possibly to numbers of the sort that we saw in March, April maybe even more, but it’s going to be fewer deaths and fewer hospitalisations mainly because it is now in younger people.”