British motorists are facing the prospect of diesel prices breaking through £2 a litre as soaring global fuel costs collide with uncertainty over possible US restrictions on diesel exports.
The warning comes as the price of diesel in Britain approaches the record reached after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the administration of US President Donald Trump weighs measures to increase domestic fuel supplies.
Reports this week suggested the White House was preparing a temporary 90-day ban on US diesel exports. The White House has since denied that such a ban is being prepared, although Trump has publicly backed the idea and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that officials are examining whether restrictions could be feasible.
Any restriction on US exports could put further pressure on already tight global diesel markets, potentially raising prices outside the US even if the policy were intended to reduce costs for American consumers.
UK diesel prices are already close to historic highs. RAC Fuel Watch data showed the average price reaching 197.31p a litre on September 23, just 1.78p below the record 199.09p set in June 2022. Petrol had risen to 173.08p a litre.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, highlighted the steady rise in diesel costs.
“With concerns over the global supply of wholesale diesel, the question facing drivers is no longer ‘when will the average price exceed 199.09p?’ but ‘how far above £2 a litre will it climb?’”
“Only a sudden and sustained drop in the cost of oil can prevent an average diesel pump price of over £2 a litre happening, which sadly appears highly unlikely.”
The increase has already pushed the cost of filling a typical 55-litre family diesel car to £108.52, around £30 more than before the US-Iran war began, according to the RAC.
Petrol has also risen sharply. At 173.08p a litre, it is around 40p more expensive than at the beginning of the conflict. A 55-litre petrol tank now costs about £95, roughly £22 more than before the war.
The pressure on diesel markets is being compounded by disruption to global oil and refined-product supplies linked to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. US diesel prices have climbed above $6.50 a gallon, prompting pressure from Republican lawmakers for Washington to restrict exports and keep more supplies at home.
Trump said on Tuesday that he supported the idea of restricting exports.
“I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel … I’ve called for it. I’ve called for it within my people,” he told reporters.
The administration has since sought to play down reports of an outright ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that officials were looking at ways to increase diesel availability in the US while maintaining supplies of petrol and jet fuel, rather than imposing a blanket prohibition.
For Europe, however, the prospect of tighter US exports has added another layer of uncertainty to an already strained fuel market.
Research analyst Ashley Kelty of Panmure Liberum has warned that UK diesel stocks could take only “a few weeks” to run down, according to reports cited by The Telegraph. Once stocks become critically tight, he suggested prices could rise “north of £2.50, £3”.
The RAC has also warned that the current trajectory is increasingly difficult for motorists to ignore. Diesel is already trading above the previous record at a number of forecourts, with motorway service stations charging considerably more than the national average.
The UK government, however, has sought to reassure motorists that supplies remain secure.
A government spokesperson said: “Forecourts in the UK are being supplied with petrol and diesel as normal and we have a diverse and resilient supply.”
The immediate question for British drivers is therefore whether global oil and refining markets stabilise before the latest surge feeds fully through to the pumps.
With diesel already less than 2p a litre below the UK’s previous record, the next milestone is no longer simply a new high — but whether the national average can breach the politically sensitive £2-a-litre threshold.
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