Despite visible green shoots in key macroeconomic indicators in the first half, the emergence of new COVID-19 variant Omicron and its fast spread has made the global economic recovery increasingly uneven towards the tail end of 2021, due to which GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, has revised down the global economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.6% in July to 4.5% in December 2021.
GlobalData forecasts the US real GDP growth to be 1.1% in Q1 2022 compared to 1.3% in Q4 2021. With challenges to supply chains and high infection rates, the UK’s real GDP growth is forecasted to slow down to 0.7% compared to 0.9% during the same period. On the other hand, with additional support from the government, Japan’s growth is expected to rise from 1.3% to 1.6%.
Gargi Rao, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The rapid spread of Omicron in more than 100 countries along with rising global inflation rates, energy crisis stemmed out of coal shortages, political tensions and slowdown in manufacturing output amid chips shortage remain the major downside risks to global growth in 2022.”