Britain is facing a “1936 moment,” and its armed forces are not ready for war, a group of retired military leaders, former ministers, and security experts has warned.
In an open letter to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the signatories called for an urgent doubling of defence spending to five per cent of GDP.
The warning comes amid rising tensions with Russia and concerns that the United Kingdom’s military readiness has been eroded by years of underinvestment.
The letter, drafted by the Defence on the Brink podcast team, cites historical parallels with Europe on the eve of World War II, suggesting Britain risks repeating the mistakes of the past if it does not act decisively.
Senior Figures Back Call for Immediate Action
Among those backing the letter are former Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace, ex-National Security Advisor Lord Darroch, and Professor Anthony King, a leading defence expert. Other signatories include former chair of the Commons Defence Select Committee Tobias Ellwood, ex-Army chief Lord Dannatt, and ex-MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove.
The letter criticises current spending plans, noting that the Ministry of Defence’s proposal to raise funding to three per cent of GDP by 2029 — five years earlier than planned — is insufficient.
While Sir Keir has pledged to meet NATO’s five per cent target by 2035, only 3.5 per cent of GDP would be allocated to direct defence spending, with 1.5 per cent earmarked for security infrastructure projects such as repairing roads.
“The UK is unprepared for military conflict with Russia,” the letter states. “A bold, credible, and measurable path must be announced to boost defence spending and restore frontline readiness. Public concern about defence is now on a par with the NHS and the cost of living.”
The letter reads, “Britain lacks the mass, readiness and resilience needed to produce a credible deterrent in an era of intensifying threats.
Britain’s actions fall dangerously short of matching our rhetoric and our meeting of Nato treaty obligations. We are deluding ourselves if we believe Russia and our other adversaries are unaware of this.
With defence spending at 2.4 per cent and a longer-term Nato goal of 3.5 per cent is simply not enough to rebuild mass, close funding gaps and get our Armed Forces into a state of readiness.
The letter continued, “You must recognise that we are facing our 1936 moment: global conflict is highly likely if we don’t invest in deterrence now.”
Budget Pressures and Readiness Concerns
The letter also highlights the financial pressures undermining the armed forces. Rising National Insurance contributions, above-average pay rises, and the cost of the Chagos deal have eaten into existing budgets. In this financial year alone, £2 billion has been cut from the defence budget, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves reportedly opposed to any major increase in spending.
Britain has not spent five per cent of GDP on defence since 1986, and the last time it reached 3.5 per cent was in 1994. The authors argue that failing to address the shortfall risks leaving the country vulnerable at a critical moment in Europe’s security landscape.
Calls for a Clear Defence Strategy
The letter urges the Prime Minister to set out a clear strategy, with specific, actionable targets to strengthen the armed forces. “The nation must act before it is too late,” it says. “We must invest in personnel, equipment, and training to ensure the UK is prepared to face the threats of the modern world.”
As debates continue over funding priorities and the government’s commitments to NATO, the letter signals growing pressure on Sir Keir to take a more aggressive approach to defence — and to reassure both the public and allies that Britain remains a credible military power.
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