Labour’s lead over the Conservative Party stands at 19 points, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta.
The poll, conducted over the last weekend (26-28 January), sees Labour on 46% of the vote, up three points from the week before, and the Conservatives on 27%, down by two in the same period.
This latest poll is more in line with Savanta’s first two polls of 2024, which both showed Labour leads in the high teens (of 19 points and 17 points). There are indications that last week’s poll may be something of an outlier, but the week-on-week change remains well within the statistical margin of error.
If these results were replicated at a General Election, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus, Labour would be on course for a majority of over 200.
This does, however, remain only the second Savanta poll since mid-November 2023 that has shown a Labour vote share at 45% or higher, with their rolling average vote share in Savanta polling still lower than it was in Autumn 2023.
Breaking down the 2019 Conservative vote in this poll, Rishi Sunak’s party appear to be retaining less than six in ten (57%) of their voters from the last election. Around one in six (16%) say they’d directly switch to Labour, while a similar proportion say they would vote for Reform UK (15%).
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “The polling picture continues to look bleak for Rishi Sunak, and with repeated rumours about a leadership challenge, the Conservative Party could perhaps be forgiven for thinking that a change of leader could provide the polling boost they need.”
“Sunak, though, will hope to weather the storm, and will point to an early Budget in March as an opportunity to unfurl some popular ‘retail’ policies that could sway those lost voters back to the Conservatives. However, with two by-elections on the horizon that are likely losses, pressure will continue to mount on Sunak, and keeping his party at bay rather than winning over voters may soon become his primary focus.”