The Met Office actually starts getting questions about this in October (sometimes before), but the short and disappointing answer is; it is still too early to say.
It’s not until the week before Christmas that we should start to have an idea about the chances of seeing any flurries on the big day.
But headlines are talking about Arctic blasts, snow bombs and snowstorms already?
Yes. And these excitable headlines occur all year round. Literally, come rain, shine or snow. But they often use one-off, individual forecasting model runs to suggest what weather ‘might’ be on the way.
However, the truth is that single model runs are not reliable enough to work out a detailed forecast, they are just one part of the wide range of information needed to provide a full forecast picture, the Met Office says.
Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern said, “What meteorologists actually do, is rather than cherry pick one computer model run for more than two weeks’ time, the computer models are run lots and lots of times and then we can pick out areas where they are agreeing and areas where they are disagreeing. Then we can talk about likely weather patterns and less-likely weather patterns, common themes and so on.”
Why is snow so difficult to forecast?
The Met Office said, “Yes, our long-range forecast now covers the festive period but, it isn’t a detailed forecast like our five-day forecasts.
“The long-range forecast gives a broad description of the weather that is likely to be affecting the UK. It gives an indication of ‘how’ the weather might change or be different from normal (like getting warmer, colder, wetter or drier for example), but it doesn’t go into too much detail as the story is always changing.
“This is because when looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere begins to play a larger part. Even small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time.
“Therefore, whilst our long-range forecast gives a prediction as to what the weather may be doing over the Christmas period, we have to acknowledge that many outcomes remain possible, and it won’t be until much closer to the time that we can say with any more certainty.
“Forecasting impactful snow is famously tricky in the UK. There are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for and numerous competing elements that all have to be exact for snow to actually fall.
“Sometimes, just a fraction of a degree in temperature can make the difference between the chance to build a beautifully formed snowman, and the joys of a sleety slushy day. That’s why forecasting snow weeks in advance is extremely tricky.”
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