The chance of Dominic Raab being removed as Foreign Secretary before the end of the month has receded, with our latest odds giving him a 93% chance of staying in post until at least 1 September.
Raab’s longer term prospects look less positive though; he’s risen from just a 5% chance of being the next cabinet minister to leave a week ago, to 26% favourite today.
Speculation has turned to potential successors to Raab as Foreign Secretary, with Michael Gove the early favourite on 27%. Liz Truss (11%) and Tom Tugendhat (10%) have also attracted some initial betting interest.
Smarkets Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick, said, “Despite the widespread criticism of Dominic Raab’s handling of the Afghanistan crisis, the likelihood of him being removed before the month end never rose above 20% on the Smarkets exchange. He looks secure for the time being, but the odds on him surviving a cabinet reshuffle don’t look as good. This could be quite the fall from grace for the man once rated as favourite to be the next prime minister.
“Others who look vulnerable in a reshuffle include Alok Sharma (whose COP26 President role will presumably expire at some point this year) and Gavin Williamson, whose time as Education Secretary might soon be up, if the latest odds are any guide.
“Michael Gove is the early favourite to replace Raab in the Foreign Office, although his reported fear of flying might put some people off backing him. Tom Tugendhat, an ex-soldier who served in Afghanistan and often tipped by insiders as a future Tory leader, is one of the next in the betting with a 10% chance.”