Following Dominic Cummings bombshell claims on Wednesday the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock is now up to a 32% chance to be the next Cabinet member to leave his position.
This has risen from just 19% on Tuesday, but Boris Johnson appears fairly secure at the helm, with just a 12% chance of the Prime Minister leaving his post in 2021.
If Johnson were to depart, Rishi Sunak is 30% the favourite to take over as the Tory leader, with Michael Gove at 13%, in second, whilst Hancock has just a 5% chance.
Despite Cummings’ explosive list of allegations against the government’s handling of the pandemic, the Conservatives are still firm favourites 69% to win the most seats at the next general election.
Smarkets Political Analyst Patrick Flynn said, “Cummings’ claims that Hancock ‘lied to everybody’ and that the Prime Minister almost sacked him have seen the Health Secretary’s chances of being the next cabinet member to leave surge to 32%, up from 19% just yesterday.” Read Patrick’s full comment below.
Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst, Patrick Flynn told LLB, “Dominic Cummings couldn’t keep himself out of the spotlight for too long, could he?
“The Prime Minister’s former adviser was back today answering questions on the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic at a parliamentary select committee, with his most explosive claims focused on the Health Secretary Matt Hancock. Cummings’ claims that Hancock ‘lied to everybody’ and that the Prime Minister almost sacked him have seen the Health Secretary’s chances of being the next cabinet member to leave surge to 32%, up from 19% just yesterday.
“However, as is often the case with stories like this, I would not expect any of Cummings’ allegations to be reported on for more than a day or two in our current news environment.
“This, paired with the majority of the public’s pre-existing distrust of Cummings, means that it’s unlikely to have an impact beyond the most highly engaged voters.”
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