Bitcoin is entering the new week around $63,000, retreating from last week’s high of around $65,300–$65,400. The cryptocurrency has reacted relatively weakly despite a macroeconomic environment that has become considerably more favorable recently.
Recent weakness in U.S. economic data has significantly reduced expectations that the Fed will continue raising interest rates, while the DXY has fallen to around 99.2–99.3.
Normally, a weaker U.S. dollar and easing monetary tightening pressures would provide a relatively supportive environment for risk assets, particularly Bitcoin. Yet BTC has continued to retreat.
ETF flows are also showing a notable shift. After a relatively positive start to August, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $390 million in net outflows during the week of August 10–14. In the latest recorded session alone, net outflows reached around $131 million. This is not enough to conclude that institutional investors are abandoning Bitcoin, but it does suggest that ETF demand is no longer providing the same level of support as before.
In my view, this is an important distinction. In previous periods, ETFs were often seen as a relatively stable source of demand capable of absorbing Bitcoin being sold into the market. But as these flows become more inconsistent, BTC will have to rely more heavily on genuine demand from the rest of the market. If fresh capital does not emerge, simply holding above $60,000 does not necessarily mean that a new uptrend is forming.
On the supply side, some notable signals have also begun to emerge. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder among publicly listed companies, sold 1,690 BTC during the week of August 3–9, raising approximately $108.6 million at an average price of $64,262 per BTC. Following the transaction, the company’s Bitcoin holdings fell to 840,447 BTC. Importantly, this was not an isolated sale: Strategy has sold a total of 6,916 BTC, worth approximately $429.4 million, during its recent selling streak.
Although Strategy’s Bitcoin sales have not changed BTC’s longer-term trend, they are noteworthy from a sentiment perspective. One of Bitcoin’s most aggressive buyers over the past several years is now also willing to use BTC as a source of liquidity when financial conditions require it. This partly reflects a shift in market structure, showing that corporate and institutional demand does not always move in only one direction.
Meanwhile, on-chain data is also sending a supply-side signal worth monitoring. Bitcoin reserves on Binance have risen to approximately 667,500 BTC, the highest level in around six months. At the same time, recent data showed that approximately 228,000 BTC moved into Binance deposit addresses. In my view, this should not be interpreted as evidence that a large amount of Bitcoin is about to be sold, as inflows to an exchange do not necessarily translate into actual selling activity. However, with ETF flows weakening, a larger amount of BTC present on exchanges remains worth monitoring as it increases the supply potentially available for trading in the short term.
That said, this does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin has entered a new downtrend. One positive signal is coming from large investors. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin holdings among whales increased from approximately 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to around 3.06 million BTC in early August, representing nearly 190,000 BTC in additional accumulation. Notably, buying activity accelerated after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June. In my view, this suggests that lower price levels continue to attract some large investors and may partly explain why BTC has remained relatively stable above $60,000 despite weaker ETF flows and signs of increasing market supply.
Overall, the macroeconomic environment has become less unfavorable, but capital inflows have not been strong enough to push prices higher, while selling pressure has not been sufficient to trigger a deeper decline. This may explain why BTC continues to fluctuate around the $63,000–$65,000 range rather than establishing a clear trend.
In the short term, if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and the Fed does not adopt a more hawkish stance, yet BTC still fails to reclaim the $65,000–$66,000 area, it would suggest that Bitcoin’s main issue lies in the underlying strength of market demand. Conversely, if ETF inflows return while the amount of BTC moving onto exchanges declines, the current price area could develop into an accumulation base for a new recovery.
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