Sir Keir Starmer could face a rapid escalation of internal dissent within hours of Thursday’s local election results, amid mounting fears in Labour ranks of a devastating electoral setback.
Party insiders warn that a group of disaffected backbenchers is preparing to move against the Prime Minister if losses match dire polling forecasts, which suggest Labour could surrender hundreds of council seats.
The party is braced for heavy gains by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, while the Greens under Zack Polanski are also expected to make significant advances.
Sir Keir’s authority has been eroded in recent months by a string of controversies and declining approval ratings, leaving him increasingly exposed to unrest on the backbenches.
Anger has reportedly been compounded by internal decisions, including the widely criticised appointment of Peter Mandelson to a senior diplomatic role.
According to reports, rebel MPs are considering publishing an open letter calling on the Prime Minister to resign and set out a timetable for his departure. However, the effort faces significant hurdles, with one Labour MP indicating the move would only carry weight if backed by ministers — and no frontbencher is currently willing to put their name to such a demand.
The tactic echoes the manoeuvres used to force out Tony Blair in 2006, when sustained pressure from backbenchers over his exit timetable ultimately proved decisive. Critics of Sir Keir argue that continued uncertainty over his leadership risks paralysing the party at a critical electoral moment.
Senior figures have sought to shut down talk of a coordinated plot. Housing Secretary Steve Reed warned against destabilising infighting, saying Labour must avoid the cycle of leadership turmoil that plagued the Conservatives in recent years.
Nevertheless, potential successors are already being discussed in Westminster. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is said to have quietly built support among colleagues, while Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband are also seen as possible contenders. Andy Burnham has been linked with a bid, though he would first need to return to Parliament.
Under Labour Party rules, a challenger would require the backing of 81 MPs to trigger a formal leadership contest — a high bar, but one that restless MPs may seek to reach if the election results prove as severe as feared.
Sir Keir has maintained a relatively low domestic profile in recent days, focusing instead on international engagements across Europe, a move some critics interpret as an attempt to project statesmanship while distancing himself from an increasingly difficult campaign.
Around 5,000 seats are being contested on Thursday, alongside elections to the devolved legislatures in Scotland and Wales. Early projections suggest Labour could face particular humiliation in Wales, where it risks losing its long-held dominance and slipping behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
There are also warnings that Labour could lose control of key councils in London, underlining the scale of the electoral threat.
For now, much depends on the results as they begin to emerge. But with tensions already running high, even a moderately poor performance could be enough to embolden critics — and plunge Labour into a fresh bout of internal crisis at a moment of acute political vulnerability.
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