Sir Keir Starmer is confronting one of the most significant electoral setbacks of his leadership, with Labour on course for a heavily reduced performance in Wales that could end its century-long dominance in key contests and deepen concerns about the party’s direction in government.
Early results and counting-day projections suggest Labour could be reduced to as few as 10 seats in the Senedd, with First Minister Eluned Morgan facing the prospect of being removed from office as nationalist rivals and insurgent parties make major gains.
A defeat of that scale would mark the end of Labour’s 104-year unbroken run in Welsh and Westminster elections, underlining the extent of the party’s collapse in support across parts of the UK.
Plaid Cymru has emerged as the principal beneficiary of Labour’s losses, with party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth reporting “positive noises” from counts across Wales, while stopping short of declaring victory. The party has already begun identifying constituencies it believes it has secured, including parts of Cardiff, Penarth and Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, and Rhymney.
He said it was “very, very early” in the process but added it had been “clear for some time” that Wales was “ready for change”, with Plaid’s campaign focusing heavily on positioning itself as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform UK.
At the same time, Reform UK has recorded a surge in support across England and parts of Wales, contributing to what one senior Labour figure described as a “truly historic shift in British politics”. The party, led by Nigel Farage, has made gains in local authorities, including Havering in London, and has taken control of Essex and Suffolk councils.
Mr Farage said the results represented “a big, big day, not just for our party, but for a complete reshaping of British politics in every way”.
Labour has also suffered losses to the Conservatives and the Green Party, with voters fragmenting across multiple parties as the traditional two-party system comes under strain. Green Party gains have added further pressure on Sir Keir’s leadership, with party leader Zack Polanski declaring that “the era of two-party politics is not just dying, it is dead, and it is buried”.
Sir Keir has acknowledged the scale of Labour’s difficulties, saying the results were “tough” and that he took “responsibility” for losses across the country.
“We have lost brilliant Labour representatives across the country,” he said. “These are people who put so much into their communities, so much into our party. And that hurts, and it should hurt.”
He admitted his government had made “unnecessary mistakes” but insisted he would not “walk away and plunge the country into chaos”.
Behind the scenes, pressure is already building within Labour ranks. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has reportedly urged the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for his departure, according to reports, while other senior figures have moved to defend his leadership.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy warned against internal manoeuvring, urging colleagues not to turn the aftermath of the election into a leadership contest.
Defence Secretary John Healey also called for stability, arguing Sir Keir should be given time to recover the party’s position, saying: “He can still turn it round.”
However, discontent on the backbenches is growing. Hartlepool MP Jonathan Brash, who lost his wife’s council seat in the Reform surge, said the Prime Minister should consider setting out a “timetable for his own departure” and open up a wider leadership contest.
With counting still underway in parts of Wales, Labour figures are braced for further losses as the scale of the party’s difficulties becomes clearer. For Sir Keir, the results represent not only a bruising electoral setback but an early test of authority that is already shaping up to define his premiership.
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