Labour ‘loses Wales’ after voters fail to follow Starmer’s script

Baroness Eluned Morgan, the Labour First Minister of Wales, has reportedly lost her seat in the Senedd as the party faces what could become its worst-ever electoral performance in Wales, according to early counting projections.

Labour is now on course to return just 10 members to the Welsh Parliament, down sharply from 29, in what would represent a dramatic collapse in support and a potential historic realignment in Welsh politics.

If confirmed, the result would see Labour lose control of the Senedd for the first time since its creation in 1999, ending more than two decades of dominance in devolved Welsh government.

The scale of the projected defeat has triggered alarm within the party, with senior figures braced for a broader political reckoning as nationalist and insurgent parties capitalise on Labour’s losses.

Plaid Cymru is expected to be the principal beneficiary, with early indications suggesting significant gains across multiple constituencies. The party has claimed strong momentum at counts and said it is seeing “positive signals” across Wales, although leaders have urged caution until final results are confirmed.

Reform UK has also surged in parts of the country, contributing to the fragmentation of the vote and adding further pressure on Labour’s traditional base. The Conservatives have likewise remained competitive in several areas, compounding Labour’s difficulties.

The projected collapse comes despite Labour’s long-standing dominance in Welsh politics, where it has governed continuously since devolution began in 1999. A loss of control would mark one of the most significant reversals in the party’s modern history.

A Labour source said the results would inevitably trigger internal reflection, with responsibility expected to fall on the First Minister’s leadership campaign.

As counting continues, the full scale of Labour’s losses is yet to be finalised, but party figures have privately conceded that the outcome represents a major political setback with consequences likely to be felt far beyond Wales.