Home Business News Reform UK could end up being the third largest party in the capital in terms of votes

Reform UK could end up being the third largest party in the capital in terms of votes

by LLB political Reporter
1st Jul 24 11:10 am

The Labour Party (49%) holds a dominant 30-point lead over the Conservatives (19%) in London, with smaller parties and independents looking set to make gains in the capital, according to new research from Savanta for the Centre for London.

The latest and final Westminster voting intention for London ahead of the election on 4 July suggests that the Conservative Party could be “all but wiped out” from the capital, a city where they won 19 seats in 2019 under Boris Johnson.

Savanta’s research also suggests that smaller parties and independents will fare well from the changing political landscape in London. Reform UK (11%) could be the third largest party in the city in terms of votes, with one quarter (24%) of those who say they voted for Susan Hall less than two months ago now saying they will back Farage’s party.

The Liberal Democrats (10%) look set to benefit from tactical voting in South and West London, as they aim to pick up several seats. Meanwhile, the proportion of Londoners who now say they’re planning on voting for ‘other parties’ or independent candidates (5%) has increased since Savanta’s last voting intention poll

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Our research suggests that the Conservatives could be all but wiped out from London this week, if our results are replicated on election day. Their party is deeply unpopular in the capital, leaking votes to Reform UK and facing threats from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour is seen by Londoners as most trusted on every policy issue important to them, from housing to the cost of living. That ultimately will be likely what drives Londoners on polling day, with our research also suggesting they’re looking forward to a London Mayor and a national government working together.

Twice as many Londoners say it is better for London (40%) when the Mayor and the national government are from the same party, compared to those who say it’s better when they’re from different parties (20%). One third (32%) say it doesn’t matter either way.

The top five most important issues facing London at the moment, when ranked by voters are:

  1. The cost of living (74%)
  2. Health, social care and the NHS (63%)
  3. Housing (55%)
  4. Crime (50%)
  5. The economy (49%)

Antonia Jennings, Chief Executive at Centre for London, said, “The Conservatives are set to face huge loses in the capital, and an uphill battle to win the votes of undecided Londoners before Thursday’s election. Should around half of London’s voters support Labour, as our polling suggests, our city will have a national government from the same party as the London Mayor the for the first time in eight years.

“This provides a window of opportunity to allow London government to advocate for greater support for our capital from Westminster. More resources to assist with our challenges are desperately needed – one in four Londoners are left in poverty after paying their housing costs. Alleviating London’s challenges is not just for London – when London does well, higher tax receipts mean more money available for desperately needed investments across the country.”

It’s unsurprising that the soaring cost of living was ranked as the most important issue facing London at the moment in our research – two thirds of Londoners feel the city is unaffordable. Whatever the result, at Centre for London we will be asking our new government to propel our capital city into a successful, sustainable, and equitable future.”

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