Petrol prices could smash record highs as Iran war drives oil surge

Britons are preparing for a new cost-of-living crisis as escalating tensions involving Iran threaten to drive fuel prices to record levels.

Petrol prices may exceed the previous UK high of 191.5p per litre, which was reached during the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Experts warn that crude oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel by the end of the month, significantly higher than the approximately $116 peak observed during the Ukraine conflict.

If this occurs, the cost of filling a typical family car could surpass £100— a milestone not seen since the peak of the energy crisis three years ago.

As of Sunday night, Brent crude, the global benchmark, had already risen above $104 a barrel, a level not seen since autumn 2023. Earlier forecasts had predicted oil prices would rise from around $92 a barrel, where they closed on Friday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs cautioned that prices could surge toward $150 if the crisis persists into April.

Some oil traders have issued even more alarming warnings, suggesting that crude prices could spike to as high as $250 per barrel if the conflict escalates significantly or major supply routes are disrupted. Markets are particularly concerned about the risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply.

Motorists are already feeling the effects. Diesel prices have risen by 8.6p in just seven days, reaching a 16-month high of 150.97p per litre. Petrol prices have also sharply increased, averaging 137.51p per litre after climbing by 4.7p over the past week.

Howard Cox, founder of the campaign group FairFuelUK, warned that further increases in crude prices could quickly translate into higher pump prices.

“If oil surpasses $100, it could add 10–20p per litre to petrol and diesel within weeks,” he stated.

Cox also noted that a prolonged surge in oil prices could have severe repercussions for the wider economy: “If it reaches $120, I believe it will trigger a recession.”

With tensions escalating across the Gulf and global energy markets on edge, analysts warn that motorists may face weeks of volatility, potentially leading to record-high pump prices.