Vladimir Putin is facing his biggest manpower dilemma since the invasion of Ukraine as the Kremlin considers a fresh wave of military call-ups — risking a backlash from a population already exhausted by years of war.
Sources close to Russian officials have claimed a new mobilisation could be launched after September’s State Duma elections, as Moscow struggles to replace battlefield losses and maintain the pressure on Ukraine.
The warning comes after a sharp fall in the number of Russians signing up to fight, with recruitment reportedly down by around a third compared with the same period last year.
Behind the scenes, the Kremlin is facing an increasingly difficult choice: continue offering huge financial incentives to volunteers, or force another unpopular mobilisation.
The last major call-up in September 2022 triggered panic across Russia, with tens of thousands fleeing the country in a matter of days to avoid being sent to the front.
The mobilisation hit younger and more educated Russians hardest, with the majority of those called up under the age of 35 and many holding university qualifications.
Putin has since tried to avoid repeating that political shock.
Instead, the Russian military has increasingly relied on alternative sources of manpower, including prisoners recruited from jails and vulnerable men lured by promises of safe jobs away from the battlefield.
One Russian soldier described the new recruits as a desperate last resort.
“They were taken from prison, others from the streets,” he said, claiming many were treated as disposable.
“They are criminals, homeless people, people already so old and ill they can barely stand.”
Reports suggest some recruits were attracted through job adverts offering roles such as drivers, guards or construction workers, only to find themselves sent closer to the fighting.
Others were reportedly offered vague positions such as “peacekeepers” before discovering they involved frontline support duties.
The pressure comes as Russia’s military continues to suffer heavy losses.
Western officials have estimated hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began, with the Kremlin increasingly dependent on new waves of recruits to sustain operations.
The human cost is being felt on the battlefield.
One Russian soldier described troops fighting for tiny gains while suffering severe shortages.
“We’ve been fighting for 300 square metres since January,” he said.
“We are short of everything: people, equipment, drones.”
Another claimed many new recruits abandon positions soon after arriving at the front.
The Kremlin has also expanded recruitment efforts overseas, with thousands of foreign nationals reportedly joining Russian forces from more than 100 countries.
But the growing reliance on desperate recruitment methods highlights the strain facing Moscow’s war effort.
For Putin, the danger is not only military.
Another unpopular mobilisation could reignite public anger and expose the uncomfortable reality behind the Kremlin’s carefully controlled message of strength.
After years of promises that Russia’s war would remain distant from ordinary citizens, another mass call-up could bring the conflict directly back to millions of Russian families.
And that is the gamble Putin may be forced to take.
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