Home Business News Conservative leadership race: Rishi Sunak just ahead of Penny Mordaunt to replace Boris Johnson

Conservative leadership race: Rishi Sunak just ahead of Penny Mordaunt to replace Boris Johnson

by LLB political Reporter
12th Jul 22 1:15 pm

Penny Mordaunt now has a 30% chance of replacing Boris Johnson as Conservative leader and sits just behind betting-market favourite Rishi Sunak (34%) on the Smarkets exchange this morning.

Mordaunt briefly became favourite after a positive ConservativeHome poll last night but Sunak has edged ahead again this morning.

Liz Truss is close behind in third place at 18% after some big-name endorsements overnight, clear of Tom Tugendhat in fourth (6%).

Kemi Badenoch was a big mover in the last 72 hours, moving up into fifth place in the betting and overtaking more well-known names like Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, and Nadhim Zahawi.

Our latest prices suggest that four rounds of voting is the most likely number that will be needed to produce the final two candidates.

With the help of @SmarketsPol followers, our Political Analyst Patrick Flynn is tracking all leadership endorsements from Tory MPs in a public spreadsheet.

Patrick also revealed his first leadership election forecast on Twitter. In 2019, his top-three forecast was out by just one vote.

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “This is beginning to look like a three-horse race. Rishi Sunak continues to lead the way in endorsements received from fellow Tory MPs and is rated as a 75% chance to make it to the final run-off. A showdown between Sunak and Penny Mordaunt now looks like the most likely outcome, but some big-name endorsements overnight for Liz Truss have seen her move onto the heels of the two market leaders.

“Kemi Badenoch has been the surprise package so far with some significant party backers moving her up into fifth place in the betting ahead of better-known names like Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, and Nadhim Zahawi.

“Although we could have as many as 11 runners on the first ballot, the latest odds on Smarkets suggest it may take as few as four rounds of voting to find the two candidates who’ll go through to face the membership vote. Bettors are clearly expecting a number of the less-fancied candidates to be eliminated or drop out very early.”

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