Black Friday fizzles as consumer confidence dives further

Total like-for-like retail sales in discretionary categories (fashion, homewares and lifestyle) recorded retail sales growth of +3.4% in November, compared to a very weak base of -5.8% in November 2024.

This is according to the latest High Street Sales Tracker from accountancy and business advisory firm BDO.

In the month which included Black Friday, in-store sales grew by just +1.3%, compared to a very poor base of -5.5% in November 2024.

This is also well below the rate of inflation which means that sales volumes are significantly down. Sales growth was primarily driven by online sales, which increased by +9.9% compared to a negative -7.8% for the same month last year, reflecting the continued struggles of bricks and mortar stores to attract consumer spending, but also online spending barely getting back to 2023.

Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, said, “Black Friday failed to drive any meaningful sales growth for retailers or get shoppers spending in stores in November. In fact, the week of Black Friday saw the lowest sales growth during the month, at just +0.38% above the same week last year. Sales on the high street registered minimal growth, and while online sales performed better, retailers discounted heavily throughout November to generate these sales, which will have put further pressure on their margins.

“Consumer confidence has also fallen sharply and wider economic conditions are unlikely to have encouraged many shoppers to go out and spend in discretionary categories.

“While retailers may have thought that consumers were holding back until the budget, which was unhelpfully late in the Golden Quarter, the expected surge in Black Friday discretionary spending just hasn’t materialised.

“Retailers are under intense pressure to compete for every pound spent on non-essentials, and persistent food inflation is making this battle all the tougher, leaving consumers with less money to spend in discretionary categories. Ultimately this Christmas may come down to a battle between feasting and gifting – will consumers prioritise filling their festive tables or buying gifts and filling stockings?

“It will be tempting for retailers to continue the heavy discounting we saw in November, to boost sales and clear stock before new product lines come through in January, but we know that this only erodes margins. Margins and profits are already under huge pressure, and we’ve seen in November that discounts are not enough to get shoppers into stores. The balance between being left with high levels of stock or driving profits down with be challenging. With one month to go, retailers have to be creative in how they engage with customers and attract spending in this competitive landscape where economic pressures are reshaping festive priorities.”